Study of observed changes in the first harmonic amplitude of the daily precipitation amount series in the territory of Russia

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Abstract

Using the data from weather observation stations, an assessment of the statistical significance of the first harmonic amplitude of the average long-term daily precipitation amount series in Russia in 1961–2020 and their changes in 1991–2020 compared to 1961–1990 is made. It is shown that at most stations the first harmonic has a reliable value different from the noise, except for eleven stations in the southern regions of the European Part of Russia. It is revealed that, on average, there is a significant decrease in the first harmonic amplitudes of the daily precipitation series across Russia. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the studied quantities is performed and the presence of large areas with their homogeneous character is demonstrated.

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About the authors

I. O. Popov

Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: igor_o_popov@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

E. N. Popova

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: en_popova@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Graphs of the annual course of average long-term daily precipitation amounts for the period 1961–2020 (blue line) and the course of the first harmonic (orange line). Data for stations: (a) WMO 22324 (Umba, 66°41ʹ N, 34°21ʹ E), (b) WMO 27037 (Vologda, 59°19ʹ N, 39°55ʹ E), (c) WMO 34866 (Yashkul, 46°11ʹ N, 45°21ʹ E), (d) WMO 23867 (Laryak, 61°06ʹ N, 80°15ʹ E), (d) WMO 29974 (Olenya Rechka, 52°48ʹ N, 93°14ʹ E), (e) WMO 31909 (Terney, 45°0ʹ N, 136°36ʹ E). The abscissa axis shows the beginning dates of the corresponding months.

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3. Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the first harmonic amplitude values ​​of the series of average long-term daily precipitation amounts for the period 1961–2020. Legend: 1 – stations with statistically significant amplitude, 2 – stations with statistically insignificant amplitude.

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4. Fig. 3. (a) – histograms (1, 2) and kernel estimates (3, 4) of the distributions of the first harmonic amplitude values ​​of the series of long-term average daily precipitation amounts for the periods 1961–1990 (1, 3) and 1991–2020 (2, 4). (b) – histogram (1) and kernel estimate (2) of the distribution of changes in the first harmonic amplitude values ​​of long-term average daily precipitation amounts for the period 1991–2020 compared to the period 1961–1990.

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5. Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of the values ​​of the differences in the amplitudes of the first harmonic of the series of long-term average daily precipitation amounts for the periods 1991–2020 and 1961–1990. Legend: 1 – stations with a statistically significant increase in amplitude, 2 – stations with a statistically significant decrease in amplitude, 3 – stations with a statistically significant amplitude of the first harmonic for the period 1961–2020, 4 – stations with a statistically insignificant amplitude of the first harmonic for the period 1961–2020.

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