Forecasting the Probability and Magnitude of Solar Proton Events Using Flares and Ejections Data

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Abstract

The paper studies various characteristics of solar flares and coronal mass ejections that led or did not lead to the registration of solar proton events near the Earth for the period from 1996 to 2023. A detailed catalog of events was compiled, regression dependences of the parameters of solar sources and proton flux enhancements near the Earth were obtained. A new “proton index” of the event was proposed, and calculations were made of the probability of solar proton events and expected fluxes of particles with different energies. Longitudinal distributions of various parameters characterizing proton flux enhancements were also obtained. The established patterns will form the basis of an empirical model that allows estimating the probability of high-energy particle arrival at the Earth and the expected levels and times of registering the maxima of increases in fluxes of protons with energies > 10 and > 100 MeV.

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N. S. Shlyk

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: nshlyk@izmiran.ru
Russian Federation, Troitsk

A. V. Belov

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: nshlyk@izmiran.ru
Russian Federation, Troitsk

M. A. Abunina

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: nshlyk@izmiran.ru
Russian Federation, Troitsk

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2. Fig. 1. Relation of the solar source heliolongitude: (a) with the X-ray flux value and (b) with the initial velocity of the CME for different groups of the studied events (light circles - No SEP, dark circles - P10, squares - P100, rhombuses - GLE).

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3. Fig. 2. Relation of the actually observed maximum fluxes of particles with energies (a) > 10 MeV and (b) > 100 MeV with the fluxes calculated by formulas (3) and (4) for events with a confident binding to solar sources in the longitude range W22-W87.

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4. Fig. 3. Dependence of the probability of PCA registration on the heliolongitude and protonicity index of the event.

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5. Fig. 4. Distribution of the parameter dtP10 (h) - the time from the beginning of the corresponding X-ray flare to the registration of the maximum flux of particles with energies > 10 MeV.

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6. Fig. 5. Longitude dependence of the parameter dtP10.

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7. Fig. 6. Relation between the actually observed values of particle fluxes and model calculations for groups (a) P10 and (b) P100 for events from the entire solar disc (E85-W88).

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8. Fig. 7. Relation of the expected maximum flux of particles with energies > 10 MeV (decimal logarithm) with the initial velocity of the CME and the flash index.

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